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Friday, September 18, 2009

Time to Sell?

Now that we have seen significant recovery in global stock markets, the question which I am beginning to hear is,"Will it go down again?" My answer is "Yes, it will go down again, at some point". What I don't know is: when it will go down, how far it will go down, and for how long it will go down. History tells us that markets don't move in a straight line -- there are always ups and downs. Furthermore, I have yet to find anyone who has been able to consistently predict these ups and downs. That is why we only invest long-term money in stocks.

This post, from "The Economist", does an excellent job of summarizing my point. The blogger links to an article in which the author claims that now is the time to sell equities. His response to the argument fro selling now is as follows:

"Personally, I have no interest in arguing the point. Guessing what equities are likely to do is a fool's game, and I certainly hope none of my readers are trying to time the market with money they can't afford to lose."

We at Bond & Co. will always resist attempts to time the market, because we agree that it is a fools game. Instead, we set out to allocate investments in accordance with each individual's risk tolerance, and then we let events take their course.